A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
