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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving together. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still